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Tuesday, March 4, 2008

HIGH interest rate. CRAZY?

I watched a few financial broadcasts and ALL (yes, 100%) of them said it is crazy to call for higher interest rate in the face of such "difficult" times. But, please look at the oil crisis in the 70s. What did Paul Volker do? U telling me he is crazy? Look at the prosperity of the 80s and 90s. Was he crazy? We need to burst such vicious cycle of ever ESCALATING commodities prices and stablise the USD. Why is that crazy? Please tell me. I am just too stupid too understand.

Everyone said rates MUST be lowered. But, the FACT is that no banGs is willing to lend even if interest rate fall to 0% because of risk aversion. They are scared that the borrowers will DEFAULT. If you burst the bubble, people scared their houses will go down in value further in the future, these people will SELL no matter what price they can get. This will clear the system of all these bad debts or decisions. And we can all start anew and move on.

Yes, it will be beri difficult for many many people. But, if this drags on, we will be facing not just recession but depression because people continue to hold onto their over-valued assets in the believe that prices will go back up because FED will lower nominal rate to negative to force the lender to send their $$ out to save these people.

The conclusion is : Do we want short-term pain for long-term gain? or short-term gain for long-term pain? Clearly FED has voted for the latter.

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